SteveMRyan's Blog

June 23, 2012

And another sweep…

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 11:55 pm

17th seeded Chicago was down 2 runs early, but stormed back to win 8-4 over 48th seeded St Louis Browns.  The Sox were down 2-0 early, then tied 4-4 after taking a 4-2 lead, but then reeled off 4 runs late for the win.  Faber pitched the complete game while McCabe relieved starter Hamilton in the top of the 8th.  Shoeless Joe Jackson hit the first home run of the tourney to tie the game at 2s.   In another offensive outburst, the Southsiders had 13 hits to go with 8 walks and 5 steals.  10 of the hits were singles with one in each of the extra base categories for a team cycle.  The Brownies had seven hits with 3 doubles and one triple to go with 5 walks and one steal.  Chicago had one error while St Louis committed two.

One of the interesting things about these two teams is the disparity on defense.  Chicago is a borderline Fielding One team with a 39-40 rating depending on the pitcher’s defensive rating.  St Louis is one of the lowest Fielding Three rated teams I have ever seen with a 29-30, also depending on the pitcher’s defensive rating.  Another interesting thing is that since I am using the lineups listed on the roster sheet, Chicago has a tremendous offense even with a sub .300 OBP hitter in the second slot.  I would probably use a different player, but since this is a solo project, I am trying to use a consistent system for setting lineups and rotations and the lineup sheets provide an adequate method for both.  I am also not using sacrifices or hit and runs, plus I am just using steals as they occur on the cards within the hit numbers.  When there is a runner on third base the defense is always set deep.  According to the modern Run Expectancy Matrix from 1950-2010, the outs are worth more than the prevention of a single run when weighed against the potential for a bigger inning than has already happened.  The Matrix basically shows the number of runs that can be expected to be scored in specific situations.  The stolen base percentage needs to be above 70% to be profitable and the base advancement is never worth the cost of an out.

I also need to figure out the cropping option for the images I am using.  That isn’t a big deal.  I may also try to do what I need to do to compile some stats.  I hope to figure this out by the end of the first round.  Situation for future games may be dictated by some things going on in life, for example, I expect to work next weekend, so I doubt I will be able to play my next match-up which has two 1915 teams facing each other, the 9th seeded Detroit Tigers and the 56th seeded Cleveland Indians.  I believe Detroit is in the middle of a post-season drought and I believe Cleveland won the World Series in 1920.  I really enjoy this time period because of the surprise teams in the National League making the World Series, the Braves in 1914 and the Phillies in 1915.  Brooklyn was the only team in the 3 year period that had a winning record the previous year.  In the AL, the A’s went from 99 wins in 1914 to 109 loses in 1915 while the Red Sox went from 2nd place in 1914 to back-to-back World Series victories in 1915 & 1916.  Good times!


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