SteveMRyan's Blog

June 17, 2022

2022 Tournament for the Tournament team evaluations…

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 12:25 am
At-a-Glance evaluation…

These were the top eight teams as I like them for the 2022 APBA National Convention Baseball Tournament. I seeded teams by the top nine players by OPS then tried to fill out the defensive positions. Also, I consider the bullpen, but don’t rely on it as a determining factor. With the APBA Convention Tournament rules, if your starting pitcher isn’t good enough to start with, when he gives up enough runs to be downgraded, then the game is essentially over. Sometimes the bullpen can make a difference, but that is more of a time period factor.

Anyone familiar with bullpen usage throughout the history of MLB knows that in the late 1980’s Tony LaRussa started using relievers almost on a batter-by-batter basis and bullpen specialist came into existence. By the 2010’s, good teams had five or six quality relievers who could blow the ball by hitters and starters began to feel that a rulebook Quality Start actually meant something.

The analytics crowd began to understand leverage situations. Based on the score, inning, number of outs and baserunners, the pitcher and batter had an opportunity for a stat called Win Probability Added. It was a system for evaluating the importance of a situation and rate the success or failure of offense and defense. All that said to say that more recent teams that make the playoffs and win a high amount of regular season games may or may not have a great rotation, but most of them have a lights-out bullpen. An APBA tournament limits teams’ usage of the bullpen, so it is still important to have quality starters.

For tournament team selection, I tend to follow the Meatloaf philosophy of, “Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad.” This means I want to have at least a great offense, a great pitching staff or a great defense and to have a better chance of competing, I need to be great at two out of three. In the third category, I need to be really good. Some teams can have a questionable defense, but it helps to have adequate defensive substitutions for the late innings when I need to bring in that glove man to hold a lead. With some teams, that could mean having available pinch hitters in key situations with defensive backups to help hold a lead.

The Convention Tournament uses the Advance Optional Defense which increases the importance of defense, so that has to be considered. Relievers with an asterisk can only pitch an inning, with the possibility of pitching an extra third of an inning if the last batter they face hits into a double play. As in my team previews I posted last year, 24s and 25s are killers. I count those and don’t want too many. I also want first column 1s. The cards follow a pattern and every card has a 25 and a 27 (there might be an exception, but not many) so having a fielding one third-baseman can convert those 27s into two outs.

One factor to consider with starting pitching is control and strikeout ratings. Sometimes an X-rating can turn a double play into a strikeout. While this is not a favorable outcome, there are enough times that an X-rating turns a groundout into a strikeout and the runner(s) will not advance. Also, the Z-rating is important when turning a potential base-on-balls into a two-ball count. The positive is that it reduces the number of walks allowed. The negative outcome is that the batter gets a reroll and that can lead to an unfavorable outcome. For the most part, the reduced walks are worth it. The ZZ-rating reduces walks in a bases empty situation so it is even more powerful, but then again, the reroll has the possibility of a negative outcome. It is worth it in the long run.

As shown in the picture above, I copy & pasted the top three starting pitcher grades from my APBA Baseball inventory list. Pitching Grade is the top priority. Control rating is next, ZZ is best followed by Z, no control rating then W is undesirable. Then I rank according to defense with 2 best and 1 next. I then rate according to strikeout rating. KXY is the best followed by (in order): KX, KY, K, XY, X, Y, no strikeout rating, then R. I prefer strikeouts over contact because strikeouts can turn a bases loaded situation into an event that has minimal damage. I never want the W-rating because it turns Double Plays into walks – two outs becomes an extra baserunner. It also can turn a strike, ball or foul into aa baserunner. Sometimes I will tolerate a KXYW because I can control when that reliever is used. These situations would be at the start of an inning or with first base open when a walk isn’t the ballgame.

My key to selecting a team is picking a team I am comfortable using. I prefer a team that requires a minimal number of moves as I get wrapped up in the game and will either forget to make a move or possibly make the wrong move. From personal experience, “Thinking Hurts the Team.” I know my strengths and I am not going to outsmart the other team. I will let the dice determine my success or failure. If my team needs me to be smart, then we will not have a lot of success.

As for my reliance on OPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Average), I feel OPS is most closely associated with winning and the APBA game best simulates this with the cards. I will shuffle my lineups a bit based on the individual numbers but for the most part, I trust the game engine. I have a spreadsheet I have built and tweaked through the years (with a great amount of assistance from Mark Miller!). As I learn more about Excel, I feel the spreadsheet helps me find teams that standout as having the possibility to be fun tournament teams. And like I said above, I do my planning beforehand, so when game day arrives, I just hope for favorable dice outcomes.

June 13, 2022

Anderson Antelopes @ Washington Wardogs – June 13, 2022

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 9:04 pm
Visitor Scorecard – Anderson Antelopes
Home Scorecard – Washington Wardogs
BallScore – Box Score

Interesting game as Jim Bottomley knocked in three runs and Red Schoendienst chased the other two runs home. Bottomley hit a run scoring double with a two-run dinger while Schoendienst had a run scoring double with a sac fly. John Clarkson got the win going eight with four earned as he scattered seven hits and five walks while fanning four. Jesse Haines tallied the save with a lone hit.

Anderson was led by Craig Biggio and his two two-run doubles while Yogi Berra and Frank Thomas each had one run scoring double. Gary Sheffield scored twice and Willard Brown and John McGraw scored once. Jim McCormick went seven for the Antelopes allowing five earned on ten hits, one walk and five Ks. Stan Coveleski pitched a scoreless allowing a walk and striking out one.

Lawrence Longriders @ Hamilton Hoagies – June 13, 2022

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 4:31 pm

Visitor Scorecard – Lawrence Longriders
Home Scorecard – Hamilton Hoagies
BallScore – Box Score

Ernie Banks hit a Grand Slam to send Mickey Lolich to the showers, Hoagies had the hot dice and the Longriders didn’t.

June 11, 2022

Hamilton Hoagies @ Lawrence Longriders – June 11, 2022

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 10:15 pm
Visitor Scorecard – Hamilton Hoagies
Home Scorecard – Lawrence Longriders
BallScore – Box Score

Great game with zeros through seven, but the Hoagies broke the deadlock with a homer by Roger Bresnahan in the top of eight. George Sisler pinch-hit for Luis Aparicio to lead off the bottom of nine and laced a single to left, then on the first pitch, stole second. Paul Molitor knocked Sisler in with a one-out single to tie the score. Hack Wilson followed with a K. Roger Maris the beat out an infield hit with two outs but John Smoltz came back to whiff Mike Schmidt and end the threat.

Tommy John relieved Cy Young in the tenth and induced three weak grounders to the infield. Mariano Rivera was called to hold the score in the bottom of ten for the Hoagies. Lloyd Waner rolled a grounder to Billy Herman for the easy 4-3 out. Johnny Bench then got the 66-1 walk-off dinger and the Longriders and Tommy John were winners.

In the losing effort, John Smoltz went nine innings allowing one earned on six hits, no walks and ten Ks. Cy Young didn’t get the win, but he went nine allowing one earned on five hits, three walks and he struck out 11. Rivera got the loss while John recorded the win.

June 10, 2022

2019 Houston Astros @ 2021 Los ANgeles Dodgers – June 10, 2022 on APBAGo

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 9:28 pm
Key play in the game
APBAGo – 2019 Houston Astros Box Score
APBAGo – 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers Box Score

Here is the final inning and a half:

It is the bottom of the 15th
Lineup Change: Austin BARNES for Alex VESIA

Los Angeles LAN rolls a 3 and 1
It’s a 14 on Austin BARNES’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: Base on balls; batter takes 1st (ZZ pitcher: 2 balls)
Austin BARNES walks, takes 1st.

Los Angeles LAN rolls a 1 and 5
It’s an 11 on Trea TURNER’s card.
Result: SINGLE over 1st; runner to 3rd; batter steals 2nd on third pitch; two balls, one strike on batter
Trea TURNER SINGLES over first; Austin BARNES to 3rd.
Special Play!
Trea TURNER has stolen second, Rogelio ARMENTEROS has thrown 2 balls, the count is 2 and 1 against Mookie BETTS
Using Fielding 1
Result: Intentional Base on Balls
Rogelio ARMENTEROS issues an intentional base on balls, Mookie BETTS advances 1 base

Los Angeles LAN rolls a 6 and 4
It’s a 41 on Max MUNCY’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: Triple Play; PO-SS PO-SS A-SS PO-3B
Max MUNCY lines out to Carlos CORREA who tags out Trea TURNER. Carlos CORREA throws to Alex BREGMAN who tags out Austin BARNES. TRIPLE PLAY. That is one way to get out a bases loaded jam.

It is the top of the 16th

Lineup Change: Julio URIAS for Austin BARNES

Houston HOU rolls a 1 and 1
It’s a 1 on Carlos CORREA’s card.
Result: HOMERUN

Houston HOU takes the lead!
Carlos CORREA hits HOMERUN over right field fence.
1 run scores.

Houston HOU rolls a 6 and 4
It’s a 13 on Jose ALTUVE’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: Strikeout; PO-C (*R-FLY out; PO-CF)
Jose ALTUVE strikes out.
Lineup Change: Myles STRAW for Rogelio ARMENTEROS

Houston HOU rolls a 2 and 6
It’s a 13 on Myles STRAW’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: Strikeout; PO-C (*R-FLY out; PO-CF)
Myles STRAW strikes out.

Houston HOU rolls a 6 and 2
It’s a 13 on Yulieski GURRIEL’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: Strikeout; PO-C (*R-FLY out; PO-CF)
Yulieski GURRIEL strikes out.

It is the bottom of the 16th
Lineup Change: Bryan ABREU for Myles STRAW

Los Angeles LAN rolls a 6 and 3
It’s a 31 on Justin TURNER’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: Fly out; PO-CF
Justin TURNER flies out to George SPRINGER.

Los Angeles LAN rolls a 5 and 3
It’s a 15 on A.J. POLLOCK’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: Fly out; PO-LF
A.J. POLLOCK flies out to Yordan ALVAREZ.

Los Angeles LAN rolls a 6 and 2
It’s a 38 on Will D. SMITH’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: ball
Ball.

Los Angeles LAN rolls a 2 and 6
It’s a 13 on Will D. SMITH’s card.
Using Fielding 1
Result: Strikeout; PO-C (*R-FLY out; PO-CF)
Will D. SMITH strikes out.
Away team wins!

What a great game! – STeve

June 7, 2022

APBA Baseball 2021 Set plus XCs…

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 10:19 pm

May 30, 2022

Here is my team pitching…

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 3:27 pm
CC Pitching 05302022

I am seeking help as I am perplexed.

May 28, 2022

BallStat Issue…

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 7:41 pm

I am struggling to understand how some things work with BallStat. I have Josh Gibson as a catcher on my HOF League Team and he is credited with two pitching appearances including two saves. He hasn’t pitched.

Game 1 JJ @ CC
Game 1 JJ @ CC Composite
Game 3 KK @ CC
Game 3 KK @ CC Composite

Any ideas?

March 31, 2022

Satchel Paige, Julio Franco, Ehire Adrianza?

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 5:49 pm

Who is the oldest player in the Major Leagues? I submit Ehire Enrique Adrianza for your examination:

2014 San Francisco

March 11, 2022

APBA Golf Scoresheets

Filed under: Uncategorized — stevemryan @ 2:12 pm
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